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[music]

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Welcome Vitali um to the podcast. Uh

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nice to have you here. Uh one of the

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things that I cover on my podcast is

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like sort of macro trends that are

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happening in the world uh on this pale

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blue dot of ours that you can see from

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far away in the in the universe. Um so

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what's happening here Vitali about I I

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mean first off welcome to to the show.

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Tell us a little bit about yourself and

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then we'll go into some one of the

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couple things that I'm really interested

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in.

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>> Yeah thanks for having me. Um coming to

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you from Bay Area from Silicon Valley

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where I've spent most of my life who

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grew up. Um I run NAFTA Capital which is

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an investment banking practice. Uh we we

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raise capital for growth stage companies

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and uh new M&A probably about half and

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half in a few different uh uh deep tech

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categories mobility energy transition uh

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industrial automation prop tech um and

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material science data center and the new

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category we're entering is aerospace and

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defense. Uh we're also in the process of

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raising our own venture fund MAFA uh

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MAFA Ventures and we have a sister

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company that helps uh kind of post

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series A deep tech companies build sales

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engines called MAFA growth. Uh I also do

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a lot of writing a lot of research uh

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and have uh my second book coming out

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later this year that's focused on

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political economics uh called a

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displacement machine and kind of what's

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happening with young men in America and

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and what might be next with AI taking

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over more and more jobs.

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Now the the thesis of your book is that

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jobs will be lost, but almost on a daily

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basis you hear jobs will be lost, jobs

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will not be lost, jobs will be lost. So

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you you're definitely on the jobs will

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be lost side is what I'm thinking. Um

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talk about that and what your thesis

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would be if that happens.

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>> Well, there's no way that jobs will not

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be lost, right? We're talking about, you

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know, the next industrial revolution and

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everybody wants to be optimistic and and

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people say, "Of course, it's going to be

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great and and they're just naturally

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optimistic." But you have to look at

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kind of some some sheer facts here. You

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know, first industrial revolution took

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about 100 years, about four generations.

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Um, and where the grandfather certainly

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didn't know, you know, didn't know the

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job that his grandkid would do. Um we

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had the second industrial revolution

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that took about 60 50 years depends how

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you count. Uh so about three generations

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so already kind of getting tighter and a

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little bit more difficult for people to

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make the transition. Um and then the the

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computer revolution is you know it's

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about 40 years starting in ' 70s ' 80s

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however you want to count. Um and we we

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are part of that. So we we feel that and

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and we know that for older generations

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it was it was difficult to make the

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digital transition. Now this one is

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happening within the context of one

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generation within 10 years and that

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means that people who will be displaced

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who are already being displaced they

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have to retrain and they're still

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mid-career and I don't think it's

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realistic for somebody who has let's say

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a high school education and is doing a

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you know logistics job or um or is

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working in a in a warehouse or doing

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some assembly or driving a truck or

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doing some basic administrative work. uh

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it's not realistic for them to retrain

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for a career of the future and raise

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their their level of of uh of education.

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So that's what that's what concerns me.

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Um will we get through it? Of course we

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always get through everything, but it's

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a question of kind of pain. And um if

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you look at you know Goldman Sachs is on

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my side, right? They're projecting a

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pretty pretty big unemployment 10 20%

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possibility in the next 5 years. Um, and

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what we know for sure if you study

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history is that any society that gets a

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20% unemployment goes fascist,

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>> right? And you can see, you know, World

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War II and and uh and how the Nazi party

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came to power uh democratically is

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within 3 years the middle class in

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Germany after World War I lost their

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status and lost their income and lost

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their ability to live, you know, how

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they they were used to living. And

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that's that's what creates these

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movements. So that's what really

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concerns me. Will we make the

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transition? Sure. But the question is

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kind of at what cost and how is it what

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is it going to look like and what can we

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do to get ahead of that uh to ease that

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transition. Um you know Europe is doing

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uh Europe has a you know famously has a

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good social net that uh is helpful here.

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Even China is passing regulation about

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uh robotics replacing labor and how that

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can be done or not done. US has no

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guardrails right? We're just kind of

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free-for-all and uh that may you know

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take us very quickly into a brick wall.

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So, that's that's what I'm concerned

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about.

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>> Very interesting. Um, one of the things

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I picked up on there was the truck

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driver. Are we that close to having

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automated trucks on the road?

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>> We already have automated trucks on the

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road being tested. Uh, we there's

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several companies in Europe and US and

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in China that are doing commercial uh

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EBS uh commercial AVs. They're all

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electric, but um uh autonomous vehicles

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that are already operating in limited

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environments. So in mining in in big

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kind of rail yards things like that uh

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it and there's already companies that

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are publicly traded companies I won't

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name names um that are already testing

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this for on-road um onroad uh autonomy

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and truck driver you know or

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professional driver in the US is the

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single biggest profession and it's been

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notori it's a notoriously difficult

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profession so there's a high turnover

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rate for example in in trucking truck

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drivers they on average

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>> you know it cost them a lot to reach

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root and train a truck driver, but they

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will they will stay with the company for

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about 10 months on average. Maybe that

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stretched out a little bit. Uh but that

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was a stat I remember from a few years

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ago. So um it will solve a a particular

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pain uh to begin with because you know

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now now there's platooning. So

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essentially one driver is platooning

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several trucks behind them. Um so

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there's ways you know people have been

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trying to say solve this problem for

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years. But it will get to a point where

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it's going to be fully autonomous and

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you're going to see professional drivers

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lose their job and that's about 9 or 10

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million people in US that are in that

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profession.

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>> Interesting. Now talk about the

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manufacturing side too. Um I think Elon

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Musk said that last year or it is June

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now. Yeah, he said last year he said by

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the end of this year we'll have robots

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on the

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manufacturing floor of Tesla if it's not

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already there. Um but it would might be

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more scaled out by the end of this year.

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>> Yeah, I mean you have to separate the

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hype from reality. Uh I would never

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quote Elon Musk on anything around

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timelines because he's never met a

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timeline. Um so but the reality is that

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uh automotive manufacturing has been the

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most roboticized uh category for many

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years right because you can you can very

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much define a process it goes in the

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line it's kind of the most friendly to

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robotics 10 years ago I went to Shenzen

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went to an electronics manufacturer and

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kind of on the on the ground floor you

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saw um a bunch of yellow suits right and

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those were the workers doing assembly

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and then you had uh green suits that

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were like one out of

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Those were the managers. You go to the

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next floor and it's only green suits and

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automation. And then the idea was you go

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to the third floor and it's just lights

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out manufacturer with no human

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involvement. That was 10 years ago,

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right? So if you want to see the future,

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go to China and and see how they're

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doing manufacturing. Um manufacturing

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will be more and more automated. um you

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know if you look if you go to the

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Porsche factory um you know the first

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time a human touches it is after it

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comes out of the out of the um paint

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booth [clears throat] right

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>> so there are already major parts of the

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process that are automated um and you

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know there was all this hype uh

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political hype um about bringing

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manufacturing back to the US maybe it'll

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come back but it won't be humans it will

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be robots that are doing that work

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>> so that's that's long gone kind of

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simple you know simple moving part from

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left to right and doing all those things

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and getting roboticized.

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>> On the other hand, you know, who wants

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to stand on their feet for eight hours

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doing the same repetitive task?

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>> That's that's no that's no life. That's

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no lifestyle. Question is like how do

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you get those people to be productive

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and and feel uh you know let them earn a

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living in another way. How do you

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retrain those people? Um but in in our

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fund, we're specifically looking at five

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specific categories in vertical

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robotics. Uh one being healthcare

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healthcare robotics which could be which

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can span from surgical um technologies

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that are super precise which have been

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in market for a while now um surgical

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robots to um things in a hospital that

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help for example autonomous robots that

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will move hospital beds and move

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patients around the hospital which makes

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it more efficient and faster because

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usually that's a big pain to things

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around the home because we have aging

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populations from Japan to Germany and

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Italy and Spain to us, you know, and and

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other areas around the world where you

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need uh companions that will do certain

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things around the house. I mean, it it

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spans from from kind of uh delivering

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pills on time to somebody uh all the way

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to um to literally a companion because

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in Japan it's notorious. People live by

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themselves

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>> um and they're lonely.

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>> So, that's one one key category that's

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probably the biggest addressable market

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in the near next, you know, 3 to 5

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years. Uh the second one being logistics

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right so materials handling handling

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things around the warehouse um and then

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of course manufacturing automation not

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just automotive but everything else um

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and then autonomy uh onroad autonomy

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whether it's passenger vehicles or

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commercial vehicles or mass transit or

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airplanes all those things uh those are

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the big robots right that are that are

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navigating the physical world with with

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AI

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>> uh and then finally uh security and

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defense right we can't ignore that in

273
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today's world unfortunately. Uh and that

274
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also bifurcates to military technology

275
00:10:18,399 --> 00:10:21,839
which is basically high high-tech

276
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weapons and then there's actual true

277
00:10:21,839 --> 00:10:27,120
defense security which has some dual use

278
00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:30,560
um as well right where it's more

279
00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:32,800
defensive and you know anti- drone etc

280
00:10:30,560 --> 00:10:34,959
those kind of things. So those are the

281
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,800
areas that we look at and broadly if you

282
00:10:34,959 --> 00:10:38,320
look at the venture capital industry um

283
00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:41,360
the industry's already moved on about

284
00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:43,120
70% of venture capital is going into uh

285
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these vertical applications kind of

286
00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:49,200
enduser applications with revenue right

287
00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:50,720
on the horizon versus the core

288
00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:52,720
technology that's been invested for the

289
00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,959
last you know call it 10 20 years where

290
00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:57,040
we're talking about the the foundation

291
00:10:54,959 --> 00:10:59,760
models for robotics the the different

292
00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:01,279
grippers and sensors and compute kind of

293
00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:03,279
all these kind of horizontal solutions

294
00:11:01,279 --> 00:11:05,120
that gave is the building blocks to now

295
00:11:03,279 --> 00:11:07,040
be able to build the full solutions. So

296
00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:09,440
about 70% of the capital goes directly

297
00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:11,120
now. Um you know we still have a lot of

298
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:14,560
progress on on the kind of core

299
00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:16,240
technologies but but we focus on kind of

300
00:11:14,560 --> 00:11:17,600
go to market and and look at

301
00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,959
specifically you know the specific

302
00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,862
problem that they're trying to solve in

303
00:11:18,959 --> 00:11:23,519
their particular market.

304
00:11:21,862 --> 00:11:26,399
[gasps]

305
00:11:23,519 --> 00:11:30,000
>> That was a lot. Um,

306
00:11:26,399 --> 00:11:32,720
I think what I feel like is that you're

307
00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:35,279
turning me over to

308
00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:38,320
now believe that there will be severe

309
00:11:35,279 --> 00:11:40,079
job displacement. And what are we going

310
00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,360
to do, Vitali? Like, what are we going

311
00:11:40,079 --> 00:11:44,240
to do? Are we just going to sit around

312
00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:47,519
and play cards? Um, I actually feel like

313
00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:50,320
that's a a a

314
00:11:47,519 --> 00:11:52,480
realistic thing. Um, I observe like the

315
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:55,680
the trading card market, for example. it

316
00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:57,920
it's uh um you know Pokemon and Magic

317
00:11:55,680 --> 00:12:00,560
and stuff and and there's like a a

318
00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:02,240
renaissance in that right now like uh

319
00:12:00,560 --> 00:12:04,000
there's an investment side but there's

320
00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:06,720
actual people who sit down and play it.

321
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,839
Maybe we're just s the future us are

322
00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,920
just going to be sitting around

323
00:12:07,839 --> 00:12:11,839
socializing and playing cards.

324
00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,920
>> Well, there's a philosophical angle here

325
00:12:11,839 --> 00:12:15,440
and there's an economic angle, right? So

326
00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:18,720
the philosophical angle is like how are

327
00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:22,399
people going to um to fill their time

328
00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:25,120
and find uh find what they're passionate

329
00:12:22,399 --> 00:12:26,639
about and their meaning in life. You

330
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,440
know, everybody's going to be different

331
00:12:26,639 --> 00:12:29,680
there.

332
00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:31,440
>> But at a more base level, we're talking

333
00:12:29,680 --> 00:12:34,000
about economics, right?

334
00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:35,920
>> And in capitalism, we have the capital

335
00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:39,200
and labor contracts, right? They work

336
00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:40,480
together, capital and labor. And if we

337
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,680
get to a point, you know, it's never

338
00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,440
that clean. and it's not going to be a

339
00:12:41,680 --> 00:12:45,200
clean cut. But if we get to a point

340
00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:47,360
where capital doesn't really need labor

341
00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:50,160
that much or at some point eventually at

342
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:53,279
all, then we have complete kind of

343
00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:55,040
sucking cell. On the other hand, even if

344
00:12:53,279 --> 00:12:58,399
you're in a B2B business and you're

345
00:12:55,040 --> 00:13:00,240
selling to other companies, US is a 70%

346
00:12:58,399 --> 00:13:01,760
plus consumer economy. So at the end of

347
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,120
the day, somebody's selling to consumers

348
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:03,600
and they're driving the economy,

349
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,519
>> right?

350
00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:08,240
>> So if you have an unhealthy economy

351
00:13:05,519 --> 00:13:09,920
where consumers have no money to spend,

352
00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:12,480
then nothing's going to work,

353
00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:14,959
>> right? So, so it's kind of a self-fixing

354
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:17,279
system in that sense. But we are going

355
00:13:14,959 --> 00:13:19,680
to get out of whack, right? If we don't

356
00:13:17,279 --> 00:13:23,040
if we don't balance all of these factors

357
00:13:19,680 --> 00:13:26,480
and very consciously go in a particular

358
00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:29,120
direction which in involves um our

359
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:30,639
legislature, it involves the government

360
00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,800
to be able to create these economic

361
00:13:30,639 --> 00:13:35,200
conditions based on what's in front of

362
00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:37,120
us, not what's behind us. Unfortunately,

363
00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:40,560
the average age of a senator in the US

364
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:42,079
is probably 120. And uh what we're

365
00:13:40,560 --> 00:13:45,279
talking about, you know, the Moors law

366
00:13:42,079 --> 00:13:47,040
was, you know, was uh 18 months, right?

367
00:13:45,279 --> 00:13:49,279
Every 18 months, there was a doubling of

368
00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:51,680
power and technology in semiconductor.

369
00:13:49,279 --> 00:13:53,279
The Moore's law in AI and robotics is 6

370
00:13:51,680 --> 00:13:54,240
months right now, and it's only going to

371
00:13:53,279 --> 00:13:56,399
shrink.

372
00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:58,800
>> So, we need to get ahead of it. You

373
00:13:56,399 --> 00:14:01,279
know, every six months, basically, we're

374
00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:04,399
having a quadrupling of power of AI in a

375
00:14:01,279 --> 00:14:07,360
year, right? and and that that's only

376
00:14:04,399 --> 00:14:10,560
getting compressed. So, how do we put in

377
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:12,240
the guard rails that that the these

378
00:14:10,560 --> 00:14:15,040
factors that are completely changing the

379
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:16,639
economics of business that they not

380
00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:19,760
going to completely break the economics

381
00:14:16,639 --> 00:14:22,399
of our society, right? And and I don't

382
00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:24,560
hear a lot to be honest yet from from

383
00:14:22,399 --> 00:14:26,320
politicians who are thinking about this

384
00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:29,440
and putting the guardrails in place

385
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:32,399
because if I'm a founder of a of an AI

386
00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:34,079
or robotics company, I have a fiduciary

387
00:14:32,399 --> 00:14:36,800
duty. You know, that's how capitalism

388
00:14:34,079 --> 00:14:38,000
works is my job is to you as a profit

389
00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:40,000
motive. I want to maximize the

390
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:42,399
opportunity for my company, maximize the

391
00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,839
value, reduce the cost, increase the the

392
00:14:42,399 --> 00:14:46,720
revenues. That's what I'm supposed to

393
00:14:43,839 --> 00:14:48,720
do. So without a guardrails, I'm going

394
00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,399
to maximize that. Yeah.

395
00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,880
>> So, there has to be an equal playing

396
00:14:50,399 --> 00:14:54,560
field for everybody in that in that

397
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,160
category that has here are the rules of

398
00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,760
the game. You can be you can do what you

399
00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,760
want. You can be the winner. You can be

400
00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:02,399
number one, but you're not going to

401
00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:05,279
break our society. Uh, you know, it's

402
00:15:02,399 --> 00:15:07,680
it's too dangerous, right? So, so going

403
00:15:05,279 --> 00:15:10,320
back to that, you you did offer a nice

404
00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:13,360
balance between uh so capital

405
00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:15,839
understands that it doesn't need labor,

406
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:19,120
but also

407
00:15:15,839 --> 00:15:22,800
for capital to make money, it needs

408
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:24,959
labor to spend, right? So, like h how do

409
00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:26,880
you

410
00:15:24,959 --> 00:15:29,440
like does government have to be involved

411
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:31,440
there? Is that what you're saying? Um

412
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:33,920
and regulation, is that is that where it

413
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:35,360
comes in? uh there's that whole layer

414
00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,639
there that needs to be figured out,

415
00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,760
right? And I think that's what you're

416
00:15:36,639 --> 00:15:39,600
saying.

417
00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:40,959
>> Yeah. I I think we need to have a reset

418
00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,480
and then understand the economics. What

419
00:15:40,959 --> 00:15:44,240
does that mean? You know, how do we if

420
00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:46,399
people are getting displaced and if if

421
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:47,600
we're allowing robotics like in China

422
00:15:46,399 --> 00:15:48,480
there's a law they just passed a couple

423
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,639
of laws

424
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:53,360
>> on a kind of country level and on a

425
00:15:50,639 --> 00:15:55,120
province level or not province they call

426
00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:57,120
it something else but essentially they

427
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:59,279
passed laws and said you cannot lay off

428
00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:02,240
people to replace them with AI with

429
00:15:59,279 --> 00:16:03,440
robotics. Um and and there's certain

430
00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:05,519
rules to the game. You have to pay them

431
00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:07,199
a year. I think severance etc. You have

432
00:16:05,519 --> 00:16:10,639
to make sure that they can retrain.

433
00:16:07,199 --> 00:16:12,399
You're responsible for that. And um

434
00:16:10,639 --> 00:16:16,000
there has to be some version of that in

435
00:16:12,399 --> 00:16:18,399
the US. Um although manufacturing

436
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:20,720
fortunately unfortunately is not as big

437
00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:21,839
of a factor in the US as it as it was 25

438
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,399
years ago.

439
00:16:21,839 --> 00:16:27,360
>> Um and that's the opportunity to to uh

440
00:16:24,399 --> 00:16:29,120
displace that. So uh but the other

441
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:31,920
question is okay is there going to be

442
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:34,240
then you know you you can you can take

443
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:36,160
things that we know. So for example for

444
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:38,959
every employee in US the company pays a

445
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:42,000
tax and the employee pays an income tax

446
00:16:38,959 --> 00:16:44,480
right so if there are no employees or

447
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:46,800
much fewer employees 10 to one all of

448
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:49,120
that tax revenue goes away. So then we

449
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:52,399
need some kind of equivalent of that

450
00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:54,160
being or more so paid uh by the company

451
00:16:52,399 --> 00:16:56,160
for the robotics for the productivity

452
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:58,399
that they have for the productivity gain

453
00:16:56,160 --> 00:17:01,440
and some of the tax revenue maybe goes

454
00:16:58,399 --> 00:17:03,839
as like a negative tax meaning a refund

455
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:06,160
to a certain group of people that allows

456
00:17:03,839 --> 00:17:08,319
them to kind of help ease the transition

457
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:11,679
or generally we get to this utopia that

458
00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:13,120
Musks and other describe um that you

459
00:17:11,679 --> 00:17:15,360
know nobody's going to work everything's

460
00:17:13,120 --> 00:17:17,039
being roboticized it's going to be great

461
00:17:15,360 --> 00:17:18,240
well how are people going to eat? Like

462
00:17:17,039 --> 00:17:21,039
is is it going to be everything is going

463
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:22,400
to be free and abundant and uh you know

464
00:17:21,039 --> 00:17:24,160
it doesn't work. I I was born in the

465
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:27,520
Soviet Union and I can tell you that

466
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:30,160
this this this vision of utopia and

467
00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:32,720
communism and you know Marxism communism

468
00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:34,720
doesn't work. In practice you still had

469
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:36,400
people even in the in the days of Soviet

470
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,760
Union they were more motivated and

471
00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,280
instead of you know they would go around

472
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,880
the rules they would essentially steal

473
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:42,559
to have a better lifestyle than their

474
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:44,480
neighbor next door right because they

475
00:17:42,559 --> 00:17:45,600
they weren't interested in that. So

476
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,240
human nature is going to be human

477
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:49,679
nature. Um but there has to be something

478
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:52,559
you know I'm not a I'm not a tax expert

479
00:17:49,679 --> 00:17:55,120
by any means but uh but as a hobbyist

480
00:17:52,559 --> 00:17:58,080
economist um you know there's some very

481
00:17:55,120 --> 00:18:00,960
obvious gaps that need to be filled and

482
00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:04,799
and and this is why I guess that UBI

483
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:08,640
talk UHI talk has has been surfacing

484
00:18:04,799 --> 00:18:10,160
ideas are being thrown out. Um

485
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,799
yeah what do what are your thoughts on

486
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:14,160
that? It just seems I see it more and

487
00:18:12,799 --> 00:18:16,000
more.

488
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,200
>> Yeah. I mean, you know, it's not it's

489
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,360
not without precedent. You look at

490
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,679
Norway, for example,

491
00:18:19,360 --> 00:18:24,640
>> they have a they obviously have a lot of

492
00:18:21,679 --> 00:18:25,919
oil reserves and and they're taking the

493
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,080
income that the century country

494
00:18:25,919 --> 00:18:30,320
generates from those natural resources

495
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:32,960
and it pays a negative tax, right? So,

496
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:36,640
first of all, uh universal basic income

497
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:39,679
is uh has become very polarizing in the

498
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:42,559
US. US is all about slogans and brands

499
00:18:39,679 --> 00:18:45,200
and and what you name things in politics

500
00:18:42,559 --> 00:18:48,320
makes a difference. So calling it a a

501
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:49,840
reverse tax or negative income tax I

502
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:53,360
think everybody will get behind that

503
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:55,600
right Republicans too. Um so so that's

504
00:18:53,360 --> 00:18:57,760
one thing but the question is you know

505
00:18:55,600 --> 00:19:00,080
where does that come from and is it a

506
00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,679
transition to something else and we have

507
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,840
a game plan that's 5 or 10 year

508
00:19:01,679 --> 00:19:06,240
transition or does this become a

509
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:08,080
permanent part of our economics is that

510
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,520
you know all these things sol are solved

511
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:12,080
there there are some gaps that could be

512
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:15,200
filled obviously US has now surpassed

513
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:18,960
you know US debt has surpassed our GDP

514
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:20,320
um for the first time and um you know

515
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,000
this could be a very long separate

516
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:23,600
conversation you know kind inflating our

517
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:28,400
way out of that is maybe the only

518
00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:29,840
answer. Um but um there are certain

519
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,360
things we can reduce. So for example the

520
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:33,600
healthcare industry in US completely

521
00:19:31,360 --> 00:19:36,720
broken right there's a profit motive at

522
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:38,400
least 40% is wasted because it's then in

523
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,559
this kind of cycle of insurance billing

524
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:43,440
and paying and administrative work that

525
00:19:40,559 --> 00:19:45,280
goes into all of that. um that you know

526
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:48,080
I I give people example like okay the

527
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:50,320
army exists to protect the population um

528
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:52,080
and we just pay a tax and and we

529
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,440
everybody has the coverage of the army

530
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,120
so why don't we do the same thing with

531
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,440
healthcare which is designed to protect

532
00:19:55,120 --> 00:19:59,200
the population even more so

533
00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:01,440
>> um that's kind of the justification of

534
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:04,480
of nationalizing healthare which every

535
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:07,520
other normal country has done um which

536
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:09,120
is a huge huge area of spend um so there

537
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,919
there's definitely things that can be

538
00:20:09,120 --> 00:20:14,240
reduced in our balance sheet let's

539
00:20:11,919 --> 00:20:17,039
in our in our P&L of the country and and

540
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:18,880
how we run our economy. Um, but we also

541
00:20:17,039 --> 00:20:20,559
need to figure out, okay, if there's

542
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,480
certain, you know, if we have this big

543
00:20:20,559 --> 00:20:24,080
transition and a big part of the

544
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,679
population is going to struggle with

545
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,440
this, we need to figure out a way to

546
00:20:25,679 --> 00:20:29,039
help them make that transition. And

547
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:30,400
maybe there is a future where

548
00:20:29,039 --> 00:20:32,559
everybody's an entrepreneur and

549
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,919
everybody knows everything and they can

550
00:20:32,559 --> 00:20:35,440
start their own businesses and sell to

551
00:20:33,919 --> 00:20:37,919
each other and it's going to be a happy

552
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:40,559
utopian place. Um, but it's not going to

553
00:20:37,919 --> 00:20:44,080
happen overnight, that's for sure.

554
00:20:40,559 --> 00:20:46,720
Okay. Uh yeah, I mean

555
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:48,880
it's uh it's a good narrative there

556
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,960
about the entrepreneur stuff, but yeah,

557
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:53,120
like not everybody is is capable of it,

558
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,480
too. So, um one thing that you said

559
00:20:53,120 --> 00:20:58,799
there, and I'm going to do this for the

560
00:20:54,480 --> 00:21:02,720
clips, but uh what is your take on US

561
00:20:58,799 --> 00:21:04,480
versus Canada healthcare system?

562
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:07,360
Um

563
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:09,120
so US versus Canada health care system I

564
00:21:07,360 --> 00:21:12,400
don't know enough about the Canadian

565
00:21:09,120 --> 00:21:15,520
health care system besides the fact that

566
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:17,919
um you know US is unique in completely

567
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:20,640
private system where

568
00:21:17,919 --> 00:21:23,840
um there are many many people who can't

569
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:25,919
afford the basic health care and that

570
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:28,799
means that they don't catch things on an

571
00:21:25,919 --> 00:21:31,440
annual physical and it becomes uh

572
00:21:28,799 --> 00:21:34,000
terminal cancer or some other you big

573
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:35,760
four disease. Uh so that's kind of a

574
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:38,080
non-starter, right? That that's the

575
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:40,000
basic that has to be fixed. Uh one

576
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:43,440
suggestion I've heard that's interesting

577
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:47,520
is to every year reduce the uh the age

578
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:49,200
of of of Medicare by one year. So we

579
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,799
gradually get to the system where you

580
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:54,559
qualify and you could take the Medicare

581
00:21:50,799 --> 00:21:56,640
option, you know, at 64, 63, 62, 61,

582
00:21:54,559 --> 00:21:57,840
etc. By the time you get there, you kind

583
00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:00,799
of, you know, you you make the

584
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:02,640
transition. um we kind of phase out the

585
00:22:00,799 --> 00:22:04,880
private health care system that way

586
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:08,720
because it'll provide a better option.

587
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:10,799
>> Um so it's it's really about how the

588
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:14,320
billing is handled. You can still say

589
00:22:10,799 --> 00:22:15,840
that you know all the not all but most

590
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:18,400
of the best universities and best

591
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:21,120
university education is in the US. So we

592
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:22,960
produce the best uh doctors probably

593
00:22:21,120 --> 00:22:25,600
arguably there are some other countries

594
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:28,480
that do it well you know as well but US

595
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:29,919
at volume does the best and uh it's not

596
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,280
a question of quality it's a question of

597
00:22:29,919 --> 00:22:31,600
affordability

598
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,440
>> okay

599
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:36,400
>> and we really have to fix this this

600
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:38,480
issue with uh with how people are paying

601
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:40,799
you know paying in exorbitant amounts of

602
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,480
money every month or their employers are

603
00:22:40,799 --> 00:22:44,000
and they have to factor it in instead of

604
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:46,400
you know paying their employees the cash

605
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:49,200
in their pocket they have to budget for

606
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:51,440
you know $2,000 a for somebody in their

607
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:53,440
40s to have basic health insurance. It's

608
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:55,840
crazy.

609
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:59,840
>> I've actually been lucky enough to

610
00:22:55,840 --> 00:23:03,520
experience both healthcare systems and I

611
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:06,880
do prefer the American one um only

612
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:10,559
because I found like you had more

613
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:12,880
competition for care and thus it kept

614
00:23:10,559 --> 00:23:16,480
the

615
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:21,679
I guess the quality level high.

616
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:24,960
um and premiums low. In Canada,

617
00:23:21,679 --> 00:23:28,320
it's it's uh it's a little bit

618
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:33,600
cumbersome to get the right care at the

619
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:35,679
right time. Um yeah, and it's uh I'll

620
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:37,520
just say that like definitely there's

621
00:23:35,679 --> 00:23:39,280
not the bankruptcies that happen in the

622
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:42,480
US because I I've heard that too like it

623
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,919
the healthcare if you if you get um

624
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,960
you've heard that, right? Like it's the

625
00:23:43,919 --> 00:23:47,280
number one source. I think something

626
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:50,159
like uh yeah I think something like 40%

627
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:51,840
of the population has medical debt

628
00:23:50,159 --> 00:23:53,679
>> in this country.

629
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:55,600
>> Yeah. Which is something unheard of that

630
00:23:53,679 --> 00:23:57,440
I've heard in Canada. So So that part I

631
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,640
get like you don't want to get sick and

632
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,320
then all of a sudden you're you're

633
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,640
bankrupt because of it because Canada

634
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:05,760
doesn't allow that to happen in in a in

635
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:08,799
a certain sense. But there are tradeoffs

636
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:11,520
and I think like it could be run

637
00:24:08,799 --> 00:24:15,039
uh optimally so that people have a

638
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:16,720
little bit more um I think it's yeah I

639
00:24:15,039 --> 00:24:19,520
mean certainly there's competition right

640
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:21,039
but uh let's say being in a top 1% sure

641
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,720
I can afford to pay and I'll have the

642
00:24:21,039 --> 00:24:24,720
best healthcare in the world

643
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:27,840
>> but if we're talking about kind of from

644
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:29,360
the perspective of uh of government you

645
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:31,919
know I want maximum percentage of the

646
00:24:29,360 --> 00:24:34,240
population to have the best outcome

647
00:24:31,919 --> 00:24:36,320
>> and it's kind of orthogonal the the cost

648
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,919
structure is one thing and then the

649
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,120
quality of care is is probably a

650
00:24:37,919 --> 00:24:41,600
separate thing and they they don't

651
00:24:39,120 --> 00:24:42,640
necessarily overlap 100% at least

652
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,679
there's there's certainly some

653
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,200
competition

654
00:24:43,679 --> 00:24:47,360
for the best doctors and you can only

655
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:49,120
have so many best doctors

656
00:24:47,360 --> 00:24:51,840
>> but the other thing is US has an

657
00:24:49,120 --> 00:24:53,440
advantage because it's it's 10 times the

658
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,960
population of Canada

659
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,720
>> right California has more population

660
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,880
than all of Canada and that means that

661
00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,799
you can divide the risk by a larger

662
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:04,559
population and you can provide the

663
00:25:00,799 --> 00:25:08,080
opportunity for providers for doctors uh

664
00:25:04,559 --> 00:25:09,600
to have a bigger potential market um the

665
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,760
insurance there there's other elements

666
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,200
if we really drill down on this and and

667
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:16,159
again I'm not an expert But I I know

668
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:19,360
enough to be dangerous. Um for example,

669
00:25:16,159 --> 00:25:23,360
the the cost of malpractice insurance uh

670
00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:24,400
in the US uh is so so high. Um I know

671
00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:26,720
somebody who was a pediatric

672
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:29,120
neurosurgeon and this is many years ago

673
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:32,000
>> but first you know first year uh he was

674
00:25:29,120 --> 00:25:36,320
in private practice. His his insurance

675
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:39,840
on its own was like uh $90,000 a year

676
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:41,440
and would just climb from there as he

677
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,799
builds up the cases, right? make

678
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,760
historic cases that he could be sued

679
00:25:42,799 --> 00:25:46,880
for.

680
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:48,720
>> Um, which doesn't exist to the same to

681
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:51,039
the same degree nearly in in other

682
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:53,440
countries, right? You'd really it's a

683
00:25:51,039 --> 00:25:55,360
very US is very lious society and we pay

684
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,880
for it because then there's, you know,

685
00:25:55,360 --> 00:25:58,240
malpractice insurance and all these

686
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,240
things that are created on top of that

687
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,840
as a cost structure. So there there's

688
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,279
definitely ways to kind of cut all of

689
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,799
that down and reform the entire

690
00:26:03,279 --> 00:26:06,400
healthcare system.

691
00:26:04,799 --> 00:26:09,520
>> Question is, you know, is there going to

692
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:11,679
be the political will to do that? um

693
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:13,039
looking at history probably not. So we

694
00:26:11,679 --> 00:26:15,840
have to figure out some kind of a

695
00:26:13,039 --> 00:26:18,080
phasing strategy uh whether it's that

696
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:20,640
Medicare kind of reducing the age of

697
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:22,720
Medicare over time uh or something else

698
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:24,640
or we start kind of kind of sniper

699
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:27,039
rifling like specific cost structures

700
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:29,200
and taking those out of the equation and

701
00:26:27,039 --> 00:26:32,000
trying to reduce it. But right now we

702
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:33,520
pay the most and we have the worst

703
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,919
outcomes looking at kind of population

704
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:39,600
health by percentage.

705
00:26:35,919 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaking about political will, it feels

706
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:47,279
to me that AI is being used in that way.

707
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:49,200
We saw it with the layoffs at first. Um

708
00:26:47,279 --> 00:26:52,400
where people and companies were laying

709
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:57,279
off just for the sake of it or they they

710
00:26:52,400 --> 00:27:01,360
I guess um they were using it to justify

711
00:26:57,279 --> 00:27:03,200
the layoffs. Um not fully correct.

712
00:27:01,360 --> 00:27:06,320
However,

713
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:09,200
it was done for

714
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:11,760
reasonings like here's the political

715
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:15,600
will. Like it it's it's almost like uh

716
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:18,320
here here's the reason. So So I think

717
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:20,240
that at some point you're right. There's

718
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,480
going to be regulation that comes in and

719
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:24,080
AI might be the political will that we

720
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:25,440
all need.

721
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,039
>> Yeah, I would say there's a couple

722
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:29,679
different things happening in tech. We

723
00:27:27,039 --> 00:27:33,679
have, you know, the big tech companies

724
00:27:29,679 --> 00:27:35,600
hired very very quickly during co

725
00:27:33,679 --> 00:27:38,000
>> and the ones that are doing layoffs are

726
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:40,320
still not below their COVID headcount.

727
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,000
>> And there's a lot of AI washing uh with

728
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,360
certain companies who are just saying,

729
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,200
"Oh, we're doing this because we're more

730
00:27:43,360 --> 00:27:46,159
efficient. We're laying off." They're

731
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,520
not doing it because they're more

732
00:27:46,159 --> 00:27:48,240
efficient. They're using that as an

733
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,080
excuse.

734
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:53,120
>> Yeah. uh because there's kind of certain

735
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:54,960
trends um starting with you know Musk

736
00:27:53,120 --> 00:27:57,520
coming into Twitter and cutting 80% of

737
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:59,200
the workforce but not killing the

738
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:03,039
company entirely. They they lost half

739
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:04,960
their revenue um but still um and then

740
00:28:03,039 --> 00:28:07,679
you saw a bunch of layoffs kind of

741
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:10,240
following that and but reality is they

742
00:28:07,679 --> 00:28:12,399
do have to put in a lot of capex a lot

743
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:14,320
of investment into data centers to keep

744
00:28:12,399 --> 00:28:15,679
up with each other and they have to get

745
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,120
that money from somewhere. So they're

746
00:28:15,679 --> 00:28:19,440
cutting humans and putting that money

747
00:28:17,120 --> 00:28:21,840
into data center to automate things. Uh

748
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:23,919
they are cutting out a number of layers

749
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,600
of middle management. Uh traditionally

750
00:28:23,919 --> 00:28:29,200
that doesn't need to be there.

751
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:31,840
>> Um I wrote uh a couple of mega trends uh

752
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,120
two of the eight mega trends for EY this

753
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,760
time around which is published every

754
00:28:33,120 --> 00:28:38,799
four years. Uh one of them is kind of on

755
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:40,159
the future of of uh organizations and

756
00:28:38,799 --> 00:28:42,000
what that's going to look like. And in

757
00:28:40,159 --> 00:28:43,039
our research, we identified that

758
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,720
>> mostly it's going to be middle

759
00:28:43,039 --> 00:28:45,760
management that's going to go,

760
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,640
>> right? You're going to have management,

761
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,760
you're going to have individual

762
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:51,679
contributors uh primarily. So,

763
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:53,440
>> yeah, it's it's uh we're the tip of the

764
00:28:51,679 --> 00:28:55,840
spear, right? It's cannibalizing the

765
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,679
tech industry first, but it's going to

766
00:28:55,840 --> 00:29:01,600
come for customer service,

767
00:28:57,679 --> 00:29:03,039
administrative jobs, um um all sorts of

768
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,320
things. And then ultimately in the

769
00:29:03,039 --> 00:29:06,480
physical world, we're going to see it as

770
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:08,960
well kind of replacing uh you know,

771
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:11,120
repetitive tasks in the physical world.

772
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:13,440
I did see like a little uptick on

773
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:17,360
customer service roles mainly because

774
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:20,240
people were sick of talking to AI um or

775
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:22,399
Yeah. So did you notice that?

776
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:26,240
I'm not tracking the labor statistics

777
00:29:22,399 --> 00:29:27,919
that closely, but it it's it's you know,

778
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,159
I think the near-term effect as you're

779
00:29:27,919 --> 00:29:33,120
going to see the quality of customer

780
00:29:30,159 --> 00:29:34,240
service may improve because the systems

781
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,399
are smarter

782
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:39,120
>> and they solve a call, for example,

783
00:29:36,399 --> 00:29:41,039
faster or they solve a trouble ticket

784
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,799
instead of three round trip emails,

785
00:29:41,039 --> 00:29:44,240
it'll do it in one. You know, those kind

786
00:29:42,799 --> 00:29:45,840
of KPIs we're going to see, but

787
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,279
inevitably it's going to reduce the

788
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,840
number of people you need in customer

789
00:29:47,279 --> 00:29:51,200
service. maybe not eliminate but

790
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,960
drastically reduce because they're going

791
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,799
to use these automation tools or the

792
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,000
first layer of support will be automated

793
00:29:54,799 --> 00:29:58,480
and you can already see it on any

794
00:29:56,000 --> 00:30:01,919
website right if you if you see a chat

795
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:04,000
support um uh little you know in any

796
00:30:01,919 --> 00:30:05,919
corner of any website and the first

797
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:09,039
layer is already you know 99% of the

798
00:30:05,919 --> 00:30:10,720
time it's bots before you get to a human

799
00:30:09,039 --> 00:30:12,640
so they're they're reducing that the

800
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,559
load for customer service for sure

801
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,320
>> I mean we we see it even at McDonald's

802
00:30:14,559 --> 00:30:18,960
when they want to try and get you to to

803
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:20,159
go to that kiosk at the Right. Or even

804
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:20,720
>> Right.

805
00:30:20,159 --> 00:30:22,480
>> Yeah. [gasps]

806
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:23,760
>> That's a good proxy for the same same

807
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:26,960
thing. Yeah.

808
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:29,679
>> So, tell me about your your book um your

809
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:32,000
essay and uh the thesis behind it and

810
00:30:29,679 --> 00:30:34,559
maybe go through some of the the points

811
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:36,559
that you feel will map out the trends

812
00:30:34,559 --> 00:30:38,720
for the next 5 years.

813
00:30:36,559 --> 00:30:40,320
>> Yeah. The book is uh so I wrote a book

814
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,919
10 years ago called Accelerate Startup

815
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:44,080
which is kind of soup to nuts on how to

816
00:30:41,919 --> 00:30:45,520
startups. I have a second edition of

817
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,360
that coming out this year which is

818
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,039
completely rewritten because 10 years

819
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:51,200
later AI has kind of rewritten the rules

820
00:30:49,039 --> 00:30:53,440
of how startups what they do how they do

821
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:55,440
it and what they focus on. So that's

822
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,640
that's one. The the other one is like I

823
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,840
mentioned political economist book

824
00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:02,320
called the displacement machine. And um

825
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:05,039
what I was the initial thesis was around

826
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:07,760
kind of this grievance economy which is

827
00:31:05,039 --> 00:31:10,320
uh young men being pulled into crypto

828
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:13,279
and into supplements and into all sorts

829
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,880
of misogynistic content online to try to

830
00:31:13,279 --> 00:31:17,360
play the blame game. Psychologically

831
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:19,840
it's the same thing. you you somebody is

832
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:22,640
in a in a bad place in their life and

833
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:24,240
they try to find an outside reason why

834
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,240
they are in that place, right? And you

835
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,520
point and you give them somebody to be

836
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,440
angry at.

837
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,880
>> Um or you give them an an opportunity to

838
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,559
opt out. That's how this whole crypto

839
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:36,240
industry works. Crypto is complete

840
00:31:32,559 --> 00:31:38,080
nonsense uh relative to uh to you know

841
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:40,399
traditional economics. It's like trading

842
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,559
you know nothing. and and whoever says

843
00:31:40,399 --> 00:31:43,760
that it's you know just nent is is kind

844
00:31:42,559 --> 00:31:45,440
of silly because it's been around for

845
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:49,440
almost 20 years now.

846
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:50,720
>> Um so um but people get pulled into that

847
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,399
because they don't feel like they can

848
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:54,720
participate in normal economy so they

849
00:31:52,399 --> 00:31:56,240
need some alternative some shortcut. Uh

850
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,760
that's why that works. uh what I

851
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,519
noticed, you know, so there there's that

852
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,039
element that's that's kind of top of

853
00:31:59,519 --> 00:32:02,159
mind right now, especially and it really

854
00:32:01,039 --> 00:32:04,720
kind of went through the roof under

855
00:32:02,159 --> 00:32:07,360
COVID when people were kind of lonely,

856
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:09,840
alone and and were being pulled into

857
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:13,440
these online communities even more so.

858
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:16,240
Um social media is has no guardrails,

859
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:18,080
right? Because of section 230, um people

860
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:20,159
can do and say whatever they want. And

861
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:22,640
then before you had people that were a

862
00:32:20,159 --> 00:32:24,240
little twisted that were kind of in

863
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,159
line, kept in line because they're part

864
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:28,000
of society. now they can find each other

865
00:32:26,159 --> 00:32:30,799
online and that's how we see we we see

866
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:32,880
these these really negative memes coming

867
00:32:30,799 --> 00:32:35,760
about uh and and kind of these these

868
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:37,279
movements um enter the political

869
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:39,120
entrepreneurs political entrepreneurs

870
00:32:37,279 --> 00:32:40,640
are people who are taking all of this

871
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:44,480
and pointing them towards political

872
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:46,720
action um and when you saw you know

873
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:50,080
Charlie Kirk's funeral which was at a

874
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:52,000
football stadium um with translated live

875
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:53,519
to a bunch of people and then you had

876
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,760
people going out there and basically

877
00:32:53,519 --> 00:32:58,960
giving you know their version of a of a

878
00:32:55,760 --> 00:33:01,039
Nazi speech um with Steven Miller's

879
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:03,039
literally the same themes as as Nazi

880
00:33:01,039 --> 00:33:04,799
speeches. You know, to me that's like

881
00:33:03,039 --> 00:33:06,799
that was alarm bells because then you

882
00:33:04,799 --> 00:33:08,640
see this transition from kind of taking

883
00:33:06,799 --> 00:33:10,720
you know people being economically taken

884
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,760
advantage of with all this all these

885
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,000
things that are being sold to them

886
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:16,720
because they have a a hole to fill in

887
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:18,720
their in their in their mind. uh to then

888
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:21,360
being pointed at these political uh

889
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:23,360
movements and using kind of negative

890
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,039
campaigning to kind of find a scapegoat

891
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,399
and turn people against something not

892
00:33:25,039 --> 00:33:29,279
for something but turn them against

893
00:33:26,399 --> 00:33:30,880
something in that direction. Um so so

894
00:33:29,279 --> 00:33:33,279
that's kind of the history lesson there.

895
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:35,919
Um, I also pulled in, you know, things

896
00:33:33,279 --> 00:33:38,000
like the southern strategy, um, which

897
00:33:35,919 --> 00:33:40,240
was a a very important element and kind

898
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,919
of the the moral majority, right? This

899
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:44,320
is what this is the movement the

900
00:33:41,919 --> 00:33:47,679
evangelical movement that brought about

901
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:50,159
uh Reagan and has has has uh has been

902
00:33:47,679 --> 00:33:52,000
long lasting since then but started with

903
00:33:50,159 --> 00:33:54,960
you know this church as this big mega

904
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:57,679
churches uh avoidance or trying to avoid

905
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:59,519
taxes on their schools and being and and

906
00:33:57,679 --> 00:34:01,120
forcing them to reintegrate schools but

907
00:33:59,519 --> 00:34:03,760
they really turned up political message

908
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:05,519
and um and all of that. Now the next

909
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:08,240
question is like okay what happens when

910
00:34:05,519 --> 00:34:09,599
this gets all even worse because a lot

911
00:34:08,240 --> 00:34:11,919
of these people come from kind of from

912
00:34:09,599 --> 00:34:15,599
areas where manufacturing left the

913
00:34:11,919 --> 00:34:17,679
country and kind of gutted society. Um

914
00:34:15,599 --> 00:34:19,440
and you have people who not only lost a

915
00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:21,359
paycheck but they lost community, right?

916
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,800
And they're looking a way to fill that

917
00:34:21,359 --> 00:34:24,720
because they don't they don't you know

918
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:26,560
they used to be able to graduate high

919
00:34:24,720 --> 00:34:29,679
school know that they can go get a good

920
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:32,000
union job in manufacturing and in

921
00:34:29,679 --> 00:34:33,280
automotive assembly etc. and a couple of

922
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,639
years later they can get married, they

923
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,240
can buy a house, they can have kids,

924
00:34:34,639 --> 00:34:41,040
they they can have a nice middle class

925
00:34:36,240 --> 00:34:42,960
life. All that's gone, right? So, um, so

926
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:44,639
all of that now, you know, a lot of

927
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,919
those people retrained to these jobs

928
00:34:44,639 --> 00:34:48,320
that are going to be some of the first

929
00:34:45,919 --> 00:34:49,440
affected by AI automation. So, it's

930
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,520
going to completely kind of, you know,

931
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:53,760
take the floor from under them. So, what

932
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:55,599
what what happens next, right? And and

933
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:57,119
kind of trying to think, okay, these

934
00:34:55,599 --> 00:34:59,440
trying to connect the dots, right? these

935
00:34:57,119 --> 00:35:01,119
these social entrepreneurs, these

936
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,880
political entrepreneurs that are going

937
00:35:01,119 --> 00:35:04,400
to take advantage of this situation and

938
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,240
what are they going to do with it? And

939
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:08,400
then looking at other countries and how

940
00:35:06,240 --> 00:35:10,400
they've dealt with with kind of

941
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:12,720
reintegration. So when you had East and

942
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:14,079
West Germany reintegrate, right, that

943
00:35:12,720 --> 00:35:16,240
that could have been a potential

944
00:35:14,079 --> 00:35:17,839
disaster, but the way they did it, they

945
00:35:16,240 --> 00:35:19,440
are the biggest and strongest economy in

946
00:35:17,839 --> 00:35:21,680
Europe, right? So there's there's hope

947
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:25,280
there. Denmark has a particular way of

948
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:27,440
handling uh when people get uh get lose

949
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:29,200
their job and how they get retrained and

950
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,680
how they preserve community and how they

951
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:33,440
preserve income and all those things. So

952
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,880
you know there's a bit of towards the

953
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,480
end I try to kind of provide a little

954
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:38,560
bit of a prescription on what needs to

955
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,760
be done in the next few years and how

956
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,280
much money needs to be spent which is

957
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:43,440
probably about hundred billion dollars

958
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:45,119
would it be which is in the big picture

959
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:47,520
not that much. We just spent that on a

960
00:35:45,119 --> 00:35:50,560
pointless war in Iran um in a few

961
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:52,240
months. But being able to set society on

962
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,839
a course where we have the social net

963
00:35:52,240 --> 00:35:57,599
and we we kind of help ease this

964
00:35:53,839 --> 00:35:59,280
transition to what comes next um for for

965
00:35:57,599 --> 00:36:00,560
us and the next five or 10 years are

966
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,280
going to be we're going to you know this

967
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:04,800
kind of crisis period started with 9/11.

968
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,320
Uh you can argue there's a great book

969
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:08,000
called the fourth journeying is here and

970
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:10,000
it talks about kind of the seasonality

971
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:12,079
in civilization and that we're in a

972
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:14,560
crisis period now which will last

973
00:36:12,079 --> 00:36:17,280
probably into kind of by 20 into like

974
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:18,640
early 2030s where we're going to turn

975
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,640
and society is going to feel very

976
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:22,480
different. The last time we had this was

977
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,240
you know the great depression through

978
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:26,160
World World War II, right? And you can

979
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:28,480
see the difference between pre Great

980
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:30,960
Depression, America and the world and

981
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:34,160
post World War II kind of the spring of

982
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:36,000
it all and and and how healthy society

983
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:38,079
became and and the economy and the

984
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,280
growth we got. So the the projection is

985
00:36:38,079 --> 00:36:42,400
that we're kind of going through the

986
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:44,320
same thing now and by let's say 2032

987
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:46,240
2035 we should be on the other side of

988
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:48,079
it. The question is how do we navigate

989
00:36:46,240 --> 00:36:49,359
these next few years and make sure that

990
00:36:48,079 --> 00:36:51,680
our society doesn't break because

991
00:36:49,359 --> 00:36:54,160
there's no guarantees that it won't. you

992
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:57,200
I love your perspective because you're

993
00:36:54,160 --> 00:37:00,400
coming from somebody who has lived in a

994
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:04,320
communist society and you're now looking

995
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:07,119
at fixing a capitalist society with some

996
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:10,480
sort of communism people would say but

997
00:37:07,119 --> 00:37:11,680
it's like um am I wrong there's a lot of

998
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,119
nuance to it right there's a lot of

999
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,320
nuance yeah there is nuance

1000
00:37:13,119 --> 00:37:16,000
>> it's not it's not there's only there's

1001
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,599
not only capitalism communism right

1002
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,680
that's very reductionist

1003
00:37:17,599 --> 00:37:21,680
>> uh even like democratic socialism is not

1004
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:24,480
socialism right democratic Socialism is

1005
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:25,920
what most of the countries in Europe are

1006
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,760
effectively. So

1007
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,680
>> there's a lot of nuance there and you

1008
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,839
know I I like to say I'm a single issue

1009
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:33,680
voter and that issue is economics

1010
00:37:31,839 --> 00:37:35,839
>> because if we have a healthy economic

1011
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:38,400
society then a lot of the other negative

1012
00:37:35,839 --> 00:37:39,119
negative things fade away to a certain

1013
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:40,960
degree right

1014
00:37:39,119 --> 00:37:44,079
>> is is there a country that you would say

1015
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:46,560
I would model it after this country.

1016
00:37:44,079 --> 00:37:48,640
>> It's very difficult. Um you know US has

1017
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:52,240
certain advantages if we just stop being

1018
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:56,000
stupid. Um, one of which is that uh we

1019
00:37:52,240 --> 00:37:58,800
have this uh this great group of future

1020
00:37:56,000 --> 00:38:02,240
economy drivers which are working age

1021
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:04,240
immigrants into the US and we have this

1022
00:38:02,240 --> 00:38:06,320
uh this amazing resource called Central

1023
00:38:04,240 --> 00:38:08,800
and South America that we should welcome

1024
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:10,480
with both arms open uh and provide

1025
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:12,640
opportunity because these are people who

1026
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:14,800
are coming they're they're they're

1027
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:16,000
hungry for success. They want to be

1028
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:18,720
successful with their families. I'm

1029
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:20,560
telling you this as a, you know, as a as

1030
00:38:18,720 --> 00:38:22,640
a refugee. My family immigrated out of

1031
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:26,160
Soviet Union as refugees before Soviet

1032
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:27,680
Union broke broke up. Um, and they want

1033
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:29,200
a good life for their family and they're

1034
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:33,200
going to come and they're going to drive

1035
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:34,960
the economy. Whereas um in Asia, even

1036
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:37,040
China, China, we've passed peak China as

1037
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,560
far as population because the one one

1038
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,960
child law. Mhm.

1039
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:43,119
>> So, China's is is already been shrinking

1040
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,960
for the last four or five years and will

1041
00:38:43,119 --> 00:38:46,160
be projected to be half the size by the

1042
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:47,760
end of the century

1043
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:50,000
>> by the way. And you can't build an

1044
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:51,760
economy if your if your population is

1045
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,160
going to is shrinking by half, right?

1046
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:53,520
>> Mhm.

1047
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:55,200
>> So, you need a growing growing

1048
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,320
population. We have plenty of room in

1049
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:59,680
this country, right? Especially in the

1050
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:02,480
middle of the country. Um and um and

1051
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:05,119
Europe has has big structural problems,

1052
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:07,359
right? you have an aging population but

1053
00:39:05,119 --> 00:39:08,880
uh they're they're very much against uh

1054
00:39:07,359 --> 00:39:10,160
the migration that needs to happen and

1055
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:13,280
it's always kind of south to north

1056
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:15,520
migration right and and you have uh

1057
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:18,640
North Africa and Middle East as the

1058
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:21,040
source of migration into Europe um which

1059
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:24,480
I would argue is is very you know

1060
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:26,960
culturally a huge gap between Europe and

1061
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:28,480
and and that population that's why and

1062
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,720
Europe's never been good about uh

1063
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,680
integrating immigrants anyway so there's

1064
00:39:30,720 --> 00:39:33,280
going to be some structural problems

1065
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:35,440
there but we this advantage where we can

1066
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:38,800
have a relatively young economy. We have

1067
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:40,880
a lot of natural resources. So, we are

1068
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:44,160
on our way. So, is there a country to

1069
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:45,839
model after everything? No. Um because

1070
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:47,440
we have unique advantages, but there's

1071
00:39:45,839 --> 00:39:51,040
certain things we can learn from Europe

1072
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:52,560
as far as a social uh safety net. Um we

1073
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,240
definitely need to fix our our

1074
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:57,119
healthcare system. We need to get money

1075
00:39:54,240 --> 00:39:58,960
out of politics and get to a normal, you

1076
00:39:57,119 --> 00:40:01,440
know, 10-week campaign, not two-year

1077
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:03,520
campaign with billions of dollars. Uh

1078
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:06,160
because you know we have Trump again

1079
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:07,680
because Elon Musk gave him $300 million

1080
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:11,040
period. That's the single biggest

1081
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:13,760
factor. Um so you know we need to fix

1082
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:17,359
certain things and hopefully we we don't

1083
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:21,680
break you know all the way. Um and and

1084
00:40:17,359 --> 00:40:23,839
we get a chance to to fix those things.

1085
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:26,640
>> What companies are you excited about

1086
00:40:23,839 --> 00:40:30,480
that you're investing in right now? um

1087
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:32,560
which sector and

1088
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:34,880
within that sector what what do you look

1089
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:37,280
for?

1090
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:38,880
So I we're we're focused, you know, when

1091
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,560
you're a VC, you're focused on your

1092
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,480
thesis. You don't do kind of

1093
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,520
extracurricular, especially early on

1094
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,760
with a fund one, you don't do

1095
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:48,960
extracurricular investments in in random

1096
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:51,200
things as an angel. Um so we're laser

1097
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:53,200
focused on robotics because we think uh

1098
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:55,280
you know from our research that's 39%

1099
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,880
kagger, a compound annual growth rate

1100
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:59,599
projected, which is which makes it the

1101
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:01,280
fastest technology wave of all time,

1102
00:40:59,599 --> 00:41:04,880
faster than the internet wave, the

1103
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:06,480
mobile wave, social, etc. by far. So

1104
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:09,760
that's the area kind of broadly where

1105
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:12,079
we're focused on. Um and generally we

1106
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:13,839
like companies who can become category

1107
00:41:12,079 --> 00:41:16,480
leaders in their space. They've

1108
00:41:13,839 --> 00:41:17,760
identified their customer and also we

1109
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,359
are a little bit old school in the way

1110
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,960
that we're doing a small portfolio

1111
00:41:19,359 --> 00:41:23,119
concentrated portfolio of companies 20

1112
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:24,800
to 30 in the in the whole fund and that

1113
00:41:23,119 --> 00:41:27,599
means it gives us an opportunity to to

1114
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:30,240
be helpful uh with each company open up

1115
00:41:27,599 --> 00:41:32,160
opportunities for them uh with you know

1116
00:41:30,240 --> 00:41:33,839
potential big customers uh help them

1117
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:36,640
with supply chain all those kind of

1118
00:41:33,839 --> 00:41:38,319
things. So that's that's kind of the

1119
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,520
general area. uh give you a couple of

1120
00:41:38,319 --> 00:41:42,400
companies that I'm excited about that

1121
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:44,880
I've angel invested in the past. Um and

1122
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:47,440
it's always been products that I like to

1123
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:50,000
use, right? I see that I see, you know,

1124
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:52,800
I discover a product that I use or want

1125
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:54,400
to use and I I like, you know, something

1126
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,480
about their story. So, I'll give you

1127
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:59,599
three examples. Uh one is a company

1128
00:41:56,480 --> 00:42:01,359
called FitBot, which is an uh you know,

1129
00:41:59,599 --> 00:42:03,920
I've been involved with them for almost

1130
00:42:01,359 --> 00:42:06,880
10 years, and they were the one of the

1131
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:08,720
first kind of AI personal trainers. So,

1132
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:10,160
I have a home gym. I've been going to

1133
00:42:08,720 --> 00:42:12,400
the gym, you know,

1134
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:13,680
>> an average of 5 days a week for the last

1135
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:17,520
15 years.

1136
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:18,960
>> Um, and um, and this is, you know, it

1137
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:21,040
solves a particular need where you

1138
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:22,400
basically say, "Here are my goals.

1139
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,920
Here's how much time I have, what

1140
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:25,839
equipment I have, and it'll generate the

1141
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,760
work and it'll track everything over

1142
00:42:25,839 --> 00:42:29,599
time just like a personal trainer would,

1143
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:31,040
right? So, for 10 bucks a month, instead

1144
00:42:29,599 --> 00:42:32,079
of $100 an hour, you have a personal

1145
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,200
trainer in your pocket,

1146
00:42:32,079 --> 00:42:35,119
>> which is great."

1147
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:37,119
>> So, that that's one that that made sense

1148
00:42:35,119 --> 00:42:38,319
a lot to me. and they've grown leaps and

1149
00:42:37,119 --> 00:42:41,359
bounds. They're one of the leaders in

1150
00:42:38,319 --> 00:42:43,920
this category uh these days and uh great

1151
00:42:41,359 --> 00:42:46,400
product, great team. Um another one is I

1152
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:49,839
I you know I I've done a lot in mobility

1153
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:52,240
um and I I was very excited to uh to get

1154
00:42:49,839 --> 00:42:53,440
involved with Rivian early on and had an

1155
00:42:52,240 --> 00:42:55,920
opportunity to invest while they were

1156
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:58,000
still private. Um now their stock

1157
00:42:55,920 --> 00:43:02,160
performance after IPO hasn't been great.

1158
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:03,359
There's been a lot of macro uh macro um

1159
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:05,359
conditions that they couldn't really

1160
00:43:03,359 --> 00:43:06,720
control. Um, and there's a lot of

1161
00:43:05,359 --> 00:43:08,880
companies that went under in the sector

1162
00:43:06,720 --> 00:43:11,200
that and they and they stayed uh stayed

1163
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:13,119
afloat and they've been able to survive.

1164
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,800
Now they have the R2, the kind of mass

1165
00:43:13,119 --> 00:43:17,599
market vehicle launching and I think

1166
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:19,280
that's their kind of model 3 moment

1167
00:43:17,599 --> 00:43:22,000
where they're going to go mainstream. So

1168
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:24,800
I'm excited about uh Rivian still. And

1169
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:27,440
another one is Perplexity. So Perplexity

1170
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:29,440
um I was an early user. I had some

1171
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:33,119
friends who invested in them kind of at

1172
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:35,520
seed and series A stage and um I I just

1173
00:43:33,119 --> 00:43:37,040
find they have a very elegant way of of

1174
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:38,720
solving and they move very quickly in

1175
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:40,240
the space where they don't need the

1176
00:43:38,720 --> 00:43:42,800
capital investment of the big LLM

1177
00:43:40,240 --> 00:43:44,640
players um but they're providing that uh

1178
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:47,200
that functional layer that's very very

1179
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:48,880
useful to to professionals especially

1180
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,760
that gives them all the tools in one

1181
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:52,160
place

1182
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:54,160
>> and uh we use it heavily and I also had

1183
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:56,400
an opportunity to invest in them um a

1184
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:58,079
couple of rounds ago. Uh so those you

1185
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:59,680
know generally as an angel investor and

1186
00:43:58,079 --> 00:44:00,880
this is very typical behavior kind of

1187
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,319
thinking from that perspective you

1188
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,800
always invest in things you know and

1189
00:44:02,319 --> 00:44:07,440
that you're passionate about. Um as a

1190
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:09,599
professional money manager of a fund you

1191
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:10,880
have to set a thesis for a particular

1192
00:44:09,599 --> 00:44:12,400
category. You have to build up the

1193
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:14,720
knowledge base and the institutional

1194
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:18,000
knowledge in that area and and the

1195
00:44:14,720 --> 00:44:20,240
network and invest uh in the areas where

1196
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:22,000
you you think you know are going to be

1197
00:44:20,240 --> 00:44:25,359
big in a few years kind of systemically.

1198
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:27,200
So that's a long answer for you.

1199
00:44:25,359 --> 00:44:30,240
No, no, thank you for that. I I think

1200
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:32,640
robotics is definitely a good bet. Um,

1201
00:44:30,240 --> 00:44:35,200
and uh I look forward to having one in

1202
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:36,640
my house one day to do the dishes and

1203
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:38,400
stuff. How do how far do you think we're

1204
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:41,359
away from that?

1205
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:44,640
>> So, I'm pretty bearish on humanoids. Um,

1206
00:44:41,359 --> 00:44:46,319
okay. in general. I think um so think of

1207
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:48,319
it this way and the best the easiest way

1208
00:44:46,319 --> 00:44:51,440
I found to explain is look at look at

1209
00:44:48,319 --> 00:44:53,440
how many uh look at the warning sticker

1210
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,319
in the back of your toaster right in

1211
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,760
your house

1212
00:44:54,319 --> 00:44:56,800
>> and everything that can go wrong with a

1213
00:44:55,760 --> 00:45:01,440
toaster.

1214
00:44:56,800 --> 00:45:03,599
>> Now imagine a 150 200lb robot that's

1215
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:06,319
walking around the house around kids,

1216
00:45:03,599 --> 00:45:08,720
pets and and elders

1217
00:45:06,319 --> 00:45:11,599
>> around stairs and all sorts of things.

1218
00:45:08,720 --> 00:45:14,160
>> Is it safe? I don't know.

1219
00:45:11,599 --> 00:45:16,079
um probably not yet and not not even

1220
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:17,839
close to it. Then the question is like

1221
00:45:16,079 --> 00:45:19,280
of usefulness, right? If we're creating

1222
00:45:17,839 --> 00:45:21,040
a new category and this thing is going

1223
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:22,560
to cost realistically, I don't know,

1224
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:24,560
$20,000.

1225
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:26,160
Uh I mean in US you have to look at the

1226
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:28,000
kind of the average population is

1227
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:29,680
they're hanging on to their cars longer,

1228
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:31,359
a few years longer now. Like an average

1229
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:33,520
age of a car is about 14 years on the

1230
00:45:31,359 --> 00:45:36,240
road. Um because they're trying to save

1231
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:38,480
money. So is you know how much of the

1232
00:45:36,240 --> 00:45:40,960
population is going to buy a $20,000

1233
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:42,480
toy, right? or what is it going to

1234
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,079
replace for them? Is it going to walk

1235
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:46,160
their dog? Is it going to do their

1236
00:45:44,079 --> 00:45:48,319
laundry? Like what is it going to do

1237
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:50,079
that's displacing current spend that

1238
00:45:48,319 --> 00:45:52,000
they have at home? So I don't I don't

1239
00:45:50,079 --> 00:45:54,720
think we have much good we don't have

1240
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:57,119
many good answers to that just yet. Now

1241
00:45:54,720 --> 00:45:59,200
in the commercial environment

1242
00:45:57,119 --> 00:46:02,800
um then if we look a little bit deeper

1243
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:06,319
yes uh robotization of certain tasks

1244
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:08,240
then becomes a question of do we have a

1245
00:46:06,319 --> 00:46:09,920
um do we have a use case for something

1246
00:46:08,240 --> 00:46:12,480
that's bipedal that looks like you know

1247
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:14,640
that has a head has hands and has feet.

1248
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:16,240
Uh that use case is pretty small. You're

1249
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:19,119
going to see a lot more use case for

1250
00:46:16,240 --> 00:46:21,760
like a tracked robot right big warehouse

1251
00:46:19,119 --> 00:46:23,040
or big uh manufacturing plant. It's

1252
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:25,440
going to roll around. that's much more

1253
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:27,839
efficient than walking like a human.

1254
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:29,599
Yeah. So the kind of human scale uh

1255
00:46:27,839 --> 00:46:31,119
robotics that's the question is is

1256
00:46:29,599 --> 00:46:32,319
where's the place for that? Is there a

1257
00:46:31,119 --> 00:46:34,160
place for that?

1258
00:46:32,319 --> 00:46:35,440
>> Um so I think the form factors that

1259
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,280
you'll actually see in production with

1260
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:39,040
companies figure that we're advising a

1261
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:41,599
company called humanoid uh that's based

1262
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:43,680
out of the UK. Their form factor is

1263
00:46:41,599 --> 00:46:45,839
doesn't look quite like a simple robot

1264
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:48,400
with hands and arms and legs. uh it's

1265
00:46:45,839 --> 00:46:51,040
usually tracked uh you know having uh

1266
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:52,800
wheels or tracks that it rolls around on

1267
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:54,720
or it attaches to something and it has a

1268
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:57,119
sensor array but it doesn't need to look

1269
00:46:54,720 --> 00:46:58,480
like a human head with eyes and mouth.

1270
00:46:57,119 --> 00:47:00,400
Uh we're we're pretty far away from

1271
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,920
that. I think we're 5 10 years away from

1272
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:03,680
that. China, you know, if you want to

1273
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,200
see the future, go to China. They're

1274
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:06,640
five or 10 years ahead in robotics

1275
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:08,480
already. So you can see what's going to

1276
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,440
come here after, you know, in the next 5

1277
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:12,720
years.

1278
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:15,520
>> Amazing. Yeah, I've seen uh cars that

1279
00:47:12,720 --> 00:47:18,400
have umbrellas and things like that. So,

1280
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:20,079
uh, that has a umbrella that goes up and

1281
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:22,240
protects them from rain and things like

1282
00:47:20,079 --> 00:47:22,800
that. I saw that on the timeline.

1283
00:47:22,240 --> 00:47:23,520
>> Yeah.

1284
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,040
>> Yeah.

1285
00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:26,400
>> Yeah. There's interesting things, but

1286
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:28,560
it's always a question of, okay, what

1287
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:30,880
what's cool and and is good content

1288
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:32,319
online versus

1289
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,599
>> take my money. I want to buy this thing.

1290
00:47:32,319 --> 00:47:35,119
It's going to solve a problem for me.

1291
00:47:33,599 --> 00:47:36,560
It's going to do a job for me. Like,

1292
00:47:35,119 --> 00:47:37,359
what am I going to put in my house? You

1293
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:38,640
know,

1294
00:47:37,359 --> 00:47:40,240
>> Yeah. Exactly.

1295
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,280
>> You're going to Once you become a

1296
00:47:40,240 --> 00:47:43,359
customer, you're thinking, "Okay, I'm

1297
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,800
going to pull out my credit card and buy

1298
00:47:43,359 --> 00:47:46,800
this thing." Then you start thinking

1299
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:48,800
like, you know, you can buy the the

1300
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:50,000
Boston Robotics dog. It's cute and it

1301
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,480
does tricks. Are you going to spend

1302
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:54,720
$20,000, right? Yeah, exactly.

1303
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:56,800
>> Yeah. Maybe for commercial purposes, for

1304
00:47:54,720 --> 00:47:58,480
military, sure. But is that thing Are

1305
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,440
you going to buy it instead of a dog? I

1306
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:00,079
don't think so.

1307
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:03,040
>> No.

1308
00:48:00,079 --> 00:48:04,560
>> So, well, thank you so much for being on

1309
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:06,720
the show. This has shed a lot of light

1310
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:08,480
and I'm going to be thinking about this

1311
00:48:06,720 --> 00:48:10,560
conversation

1312
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:12,960
a lot because there's a lot that you

1313
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:14,880
downloaded and uh I'll probably have

1314
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:17,280
some follow-up questions, Vitali, so

1315
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:19,599
I'll talk to you. Well, it's been my

1316
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,599
pleasure.